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The total trading LNG carrier fleet has expanded to 452 vessels, with a total capacity of 65.7 million m³, as of 1 September, after 17 newbuildings with a combined capacity of 2.8 million m³ were delivered in the first eight months of this year, according to the latest Banchero Costa LNG Shipping Market Report.
Banchero Costa expects the fleet to grow by 9 per cent this year, with 6.1 million m³ hitting the water, “creating further pressure on the market”. It predicts that deliveries will peak next year, expanding the fleet by a further 11 per cent before expansion slows in 2018 to 7 per cent.
Those figures assume no upturn in scrapping levels and are based on current delivery timetables.
Last year, 31 vessel deliveries increased trading fleet capacity by 4.5 million m³. Rates of scrapping, meanwhile, remain low, with just one vessel of 131,000m³ scrapped in the first eight months of this year and one of 77,000m³ scrapped last year.
The orderbook for all LNG carriers stood at 30 per cent of the trading fleet at 134 units, as of 1 September, in terms of vessel numbers, with 91 per cent of it in the 120,000m³-199,999m³ size range.
However, orders have, of course, slowed this year. By August, Banchero Costa reports, just four LNG-carrier newbuildings had been ordered, adding a combined 700,000m³. That excludes the order placed last month at Samsung Heavy Industry (SHI) for two 180,000m³ LNG carriers for an unnamed Europe-based owner said to be GasLog.
Banchero Costa’s figures show that the 10 largest owners control around half the trading fleet and nearly 60 per cent of the orderbook. They show that the average age of the trading LNG fleet is just shy of 9.9 years, reflecting the influx of new deliveries.
This year has been characterised by an oversupply of LNG-carrier capacity as newbuildings have hit the water faster than the projects against which they were ordered.
However, Banchero Costa sees a more promising balance ahead, as new supply hits the market from Australia, the US, Russia and in future from Canada and east Africa. It expects Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines to generate “significant demand growth”. China and India are promising too, although both countries exhibit high LNG-price elasticity.
By 2020, global LNG trade volumes “could as much as double”, Banchero Costa concludes, but pressure on prices and shifting trade patterns will make life more complicated for shipowners.
“Despite concerns of a downturn in demand growth from the largest Asian importers, new sources of demand are expected to develop. The increase in the number of importing and exporting countries, coupled with price uncertainty will continue to amplify the complexity of trades.”
source: http://www.lngworldshipping.com/news/view,anatomy-of-the-lngcarrier-fleet_45040.htm