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This month, Colombia became the latest entrant to the LNG-importers’ club. Other new buyers this year include Jamaica and Indonesia, which have taken delivery of floating storage units (FSUs), Finland, which has opened a small-scale import terminal at Pori, Poland, home to new deepsea terminal Swijnouscie, that aims to become a Baltic LNG hub and Barbados, which is receiving small US shipments by barge from Florida.
Malta has also taken delivery of an FSU and should receive its first cargoes soon. Other new importers are looking at their options, including Bangladesh, Bahrain, Ghana and Puerto Rico.
Analyst Wood Mackenzie has identified 12 prospective LNG-import nations and predicts that 2018 will be the busiest year ahead for new buyers. In 2018, Wood Mackenzie expects Bahrain, Bangladesh, Panama and Uruguay to take delivery of their first cargoes, together taking an initial 2.9 million tonnes.
Other prospective buyers include the Philippines, Vietnam, Morocco and El Salvador.
However, Wood Mackenzie’s predictions show that the world’s emerging economies are not the only likely takers. Between now and 2030, it also expects Croatia, Ireland, the Canary Islands and Germany to start to import LNG to clean up their emissions or to diversify their power-supply.
However, Wood Mackenzie’s list of prospective new buyers may err on the bearish side. It excludes Russia, which plans to station the world’s first ice-class floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) in the enclave of Kaliningrad. Gazprom is due to take delivery of the 174,100m³ newbuilding in November next year.
It also excludes Cyprus, which may – at least initially – import gas to support a switch away from oil-based power production, while it waits to tap its offshore reserves. And it excludes Kenya and South Africa, which are both examining their LNG-import options.
New buyers want to tap the twin benefits of a cleaner-burning fuel and power-generation source and by ever lower gas prices, which have halved over the past two years, thanks to the glut of new production from the US and Australia in particular.
The question is whether low prices will persist.
Overcontracted buyers Japan and South Korea want to sell on their surplus cargoes. To do so, they must challenge the terms of their contracts. Bloomberg reported this week that some 80 per cent of these two countries’ long-term contracts restrict resales.
LNG sellers including Shell and BP are warning their customers that more flexible terms will come at a cost. And so, while new buyers are obvious takers for these surplus LNG cargoes – the question is, at what price?
source: http://www.lngworldshipping.com/news/view,tapping-tomorrows-lng-demand_45621.htm